急性A型主动脉夹层术前急性缺血性脑卒中的危险因素分析及列线图构建

    Analysis of risk factors and construction of nomogram for preoperative acute ischemic stroke in acute type A aortic dissection

    • 摘要:
      目的 分析急性A型主动脉夹层(acute type A aortic dissection,ATAAD)患者术前发生急性缺血性脑卒中(acute ischemic stroke,AIS)的危险因素,并建立预测其发生风险的列线图。
      方法 收集2020年3月~2021年4月期间经临床确诊为ATAAD的312例患者。根据是否存在术前急性缺血性脑卒中分为两组,并收集患者可能有AIS有关的影响因素,包括临床资料和影像学资料,采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析来筛选与术前AIS相关的预测因素,建立列线图模型。
      结果 入组312例患者中术前114例出现AIS(36.5%),通过 Logistic 回归分析发现年龄(P<0.05)、晕厥(P<0.05)、D-二聚体(P<0.01)、主动脉中重度关闭不全(P<0.05)、升主动脉真腔直径比 <0.33(P<0.05)、颈总动脉夹层(P<0.05)是急性缺血性脑卒中发生的独立危险因素。基于多因素回归结果构建列线图,ROC曲线结果显示该列线图模型预测急性A型主动脉夹层术前发生急性缺血性脑卒中的曲线下面积为0.80(95% CI:0.75~0.85)。校准曲线显示观测值与预测值拟合度较好。
      结论 年龄、晕厥、D -二聚体、主动脉中重度关闭不全、升主动脉真腔直径比 <0.33、颈总动脉夹层是ATAAD患者术前发生AIS的独立危险因素,列线图对ATAAD患者术前发生AIS预测具有良好的鉴别和校正能力。

       

      Abstract:
      AIM  To analyze the risk factors of preoperative acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in patients with acute type a aortic dissection (ATAAD) and to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of ischemic stroke.
      METHODS Three hundred and twelve patients who were clinically diagnosed with ATAAD from March 2020 to April 2021 were included for this study. The patients were divided into two groups according to the presence or absence of preoperative acute ischemic stroke and the influencing factors related to AIS were collected, including clinical data and imaging data. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen the predictors related to preoperative AIS and a nomogram model was established.
      RESULTS Among the 312 patients, 114 (36.5%) developed preoperative AIS. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (P<0.05), syncope (P<0.05), D-dimer (P<0.01), moderate and severe aortic insufficiency (P<0.05), diameter ratio of true lumen in ascending aorta <0.33 (P<0.05) and common carotid artery dissection (P<0.05) were independent risk factors for acute ischemic stroke. The ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve of the ROC model for predicting acute ischemic stroke before acute type A aortic dissection was 0.80 (95%CI: 0.75~0.85). The calibration curve showed that the observed values fit well with the predicted values.
      CONCLUSION Age, syncope, D-dimer, moderate to severe aortic insufficiency, diameter ratio of true lumen in ascending aorta <0.33 and common carotid artery dissection are independent risk factors for preoperative AIS in ATAAD patients. The nomogram has good ability to distinguish and correct the prediction of preoperative AIS in ATAAD patients.

       

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